Kigali at ten: the cooling treaty India has to grow into

The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol was adopted on 15 October 2016, and the parties return to the same city for the 38th Meeting of the Parties from 2 to 6 November 2026. The anniversary is not merely ceremonial. For India, the treaty's difficult decade begins now: the freeze on hydrofluorocarbons is due in 2028, and the demand for cooling is growing faster than the alternatives can replace it [1][2].

India ratified the amendment on 21 September 2021. It did so with a schedule that gives the country more time than developed economies, and with a cooling market that will test whether that time is enough.

What Kigali does

The Montreal Protocol, signed in 1987, is the treaty that saved the ozone layer by phasing out chlorofluorocarbons and later hydrochlorofluorocarbons. Those chemicals were replaced in refrigerators, air conditioners, foams and aerosols by HFCs, which do not damage ozone but are powerful greenhouse gases.

HFC-134a, one of the most common refrigerants, has a global warming potential of about 1,400 times that of carbon dioxide. HFC-23, a by-product of HCFC-22 production, is roughly 14,800 times as potent. The Kigali Amendment brings these gases under the Montreal Protocol and requires parties to phase them down, not ban them outright [2][3].

The climate payoff is the reason the treaty is treated as a major achievement. The phase-down is expected to avoid up to 0.5°C of warming by the end of the century, making it one of the largest single contributions to climate mitigation secured so far [2].

India's schedule

India belongs to a small and unusual category under the treaty. It is an Article 5 party, and within that a member of Group 2, the ten developing countries with high ambient temperatures. The group exists because a refrigerant that works in northern Europe often struggles in Indian summer heat, and the treaty accepts that the replacement technology needs longer to arrive there.

For Group 2, the baseline is the average HFC consumption over 2024 to 2026 plus 65 per cent of the HCFC baseline. India's first control step comes four years after its freeze, and its final cut is deeper than the one required of other developing countries.

Year	Obligation
2021	Ratification
2024 to 2026	Baseline period
2028	Freeze at the baseline level
2032	10 per cent cut
2037	20 per cent cut
2042	30 per cent cut
2047	85 per cent cut, the plateau

The schedule is back-loaded on purpose. It gives India time to build alternatives, train technicians and design equipment, while the freeze in 2028 forces the first real discipline: consumption cannot grow beyond the baseline average [2][3].

The baseline is also the number to watch. An NRDC estimate puts India's baseline at about 72.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, a figure that depends on how quickly the 2024 to 2026 data are compiled and verified [4].

Why cooling is the hard part

Cooling is not a luxury in India. It is a public health requirement during heatwaves, a condition for food storage and vaccine supply, and a productivity input for factories and offices. The India Cooling Action Plan, published in 2019, projected that aggregate cooling demand would grow about eight times by 2037-38 compared with 2017-18 [5].

That projection is the reason the Kigali schedule is difficult. A country that needs eight times more cooling in a decade cannot meet an HFC freeze simply by asking people to use less. It has to change the refrigerant, improve the efficiency of the equipment and reduce the cooling load through building design, all at once.

The Cooling Action Plan set three targets for 2037-38: a 20 to 25 per cent reduction in cooling demand, a 25 to 30 per cent reduction in refrigerant demand, and a 25 to 40 per cent reduction in cooling energy requirements. Each depends on the others. A more efficient air conditioner uses less refrigerant over its life, and a better-insulated building needs a smaller machine [5].

The technology question

The replacement for HFCs is not one chemical but a family of options, each with a trade-off.

• R-32 has a global warming potential of about 675, roughly a third of the common HFC blends it replaces. It is widely used in Indian room air conditioners, but it is mildly flammable.
• R-290, or propane, has a global warming potential of about 3, but it is highly flammable and is used mainly in small appliances with strict charge limits.
• HFOs have a global warming potential close to zero, but they are expensive and protected by patents held by a small number of firms.
• Ammonia and carbon dioxide work well in industrial refrigeration, but they need different equipment and trained operators.

The choice matters for manufacturers because a refrigerant change is not a swap. The compressor, the heat exchanger, the safety systems and the service tools all change with it. For the servicing sector, which is large and largely informal, the transition requires training, certification and a supply of spare parts [5][6].

The HFC-23 problem

HFC-23 is the by-product nobody wants. It is produced when HCFC-22 is made, and it has a global warming potential of about 14,800. Capturing and destroying it is one of the cheapest climate measures available, and India has done so through a programme that earned carbon credits under the Clean Development Mechanism.

The risk is that the destruction depends on a revenue stream. When carbon prices fell, some plants stopped capturing the gas. Kigali's funding arrangements are meant to make destruction part of the compliance system rather than a voluntary add-on, but the monitoring and verification have to be in place [6].

What India has built

India's record is better than the difficulty of the task suggests.

• Ratification and planning. India ratified Kigali in 2021, published the Cooling Action Plan in 2019, and has a dedicated Ozone Cell in the environment ministry.
• HCFC phase-out. India completed the phase-out of HCFC-141b in foam manufacturing and has been reducing HCFC-22 consumption under the Montreal Protocol schedule.
• Efficiency. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency's star labelling for room air conditioners, and the UJALA programme for LED lighting, have lowered the energy intensity of cooling and lighting.
• Servicing. Training programmes for refrigeration and air-conditioning technicians have been expanded, though the informal sector remains large.

What is missing is scale. The number of trained technicians, the capacity to reclaim and recycle refrigerants, and the domestic manufacture of compressors and controls are all smaller than the transition requires.

What MOP 38 has to settle

The Kigali meeting in November will not change India's schedule, but it will decide the support that makes the schedule feasible.

• Finance. The Multilateral Fund is the main channel for incremental costs. The replenishment cycle decides how much is available for conversion, training and disposal.
• Technology transfer. Access to alternatives on reasonable terms is the unresolved bargain. Patents on HFOs sit with a few companies, and the cost of switching is highest for developing countries.
• Energy efficiency. The Kigali Amendment explicitly links the HFC phase-down to efficiency gains. If an inefficient air conditioner uses a low-GWP refrigerant, the climate benefit is partly lost.
• Data. The baseline depends on national consumption data for 2024 to 2026. Weak reporting now becomes a compliance problem in 2028.

What to watch

• The 2028 freeze. India's HFC consumption can grow until then. The trajectory over the next two years will decide whether the freeze is a soft landing or a cliff.
• The baseline data. The 2024 to 2026 average is the reference for everything that follows. Its accuracy is a governance test as much as a technical one.
• Room air conditioners. They are the largest source of HFC demand. The speed of the shift to R-32 and, later, to lower-GWP alternatives will decide the shape of the curve.
• Reclamation and recycling. Recovering refrigerant from old equipment is the cheapest way to reduce virgin demand, and the least visible part of the transition.

Quick answers

What is the Kigali Amendment? An amendment to the Montreal Protocol, adopted on 15 October 2016, that requires countries to phase down hydrofluorocarbons, which are potent greenhouse gases used in cooling equipment [2].

When did India ratify it? On 21 September 2021 [3].

When does India's HFC freeze begin? In 2028. The baseline is the average consumption over 2024 to 2026 plus 65 per cent of the HCFC baseline [2].

How much does India have to cut? 10 per cent by 2032, 20 per cent by 2037, 30 per cent by 2042 and 85 per cent by 2047 [2].

Why is cooling the hard part? The India Cooling Action Plan projects that cooling demand will grow about eight times by 2037-38, so the phase-down has to be met while demand is rising [5].

Sources

1. Rwanda Environment Management Authority: Rwanda to host the 38th Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol. 24 September 2026. https://www.environment.gov.rw
2. UN Environment Programme, Ozone Secretariat: The Kigali Amendment and the HFC phase-down. https://ozone.unep.org
3. Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change: India's ratification of the Kigali Amendment, 21 September 2021. https://moef.gov.in
4. NRDC India: India's HFC phase-down pathways. 2025. https://www.nrdcindia.org
5. Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change: India Cooling Action Plan. 2019. https://ozonecell.nic.in
6. UN Environment Programme: Kigali Amendment at 10, briefing for the 38th Meeting of the Parties. 2026. https://ozone.unep.org